# Shirsendu Work Your Magic

5-1: Indicate the different ways an individual could forecast his or her weight 10 years from now.  Do these methods change based upon whether the individual is 5, 14, 24, or 45 years old?  If so why?  (15 points)

5-2:  Using the assumption of the past predicts the future write an equation for the weight forecast.  Do the same for the assumption of cause and effect.  How does the concept of error play into each?  (15 points)

5-3:  Provide examples from the field of health services management of phenomena that are probably best forecasted using genius forecasting.  Why? (10 points)

5-4:  Determine the number of weekdays and weekend days in this month?  Compare this with the equivalent numbers of next year and last year.  What phenomenon forecasted by the health services manager might be influenced by variation in the number and types of days in a month?  Be specific and cite examples.  (15 points)

5-5:  Calculate the expected number of infant needing neonatal intensive care in a hospital if the historic rate is 5 per 1000 births, and you expect 575 births this year.  (5 points)

Chapter 6 Extra Credit (12 points)

Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page 113 (see link), provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for week XX using:

http://books.google.com/books?id=n1DUoVfN15YC&lpg=PA112&ots=9P4Fgpxd1s&dq=Northern%20College%20Health%20Services%20visit%20volume%20in%20Appendix%206-1&pg=PA113#v=onepage&q&f=false

6-1:  Extrapolation based upon Average Change

6-2:  Extrapolation based upon a Confidence Interval

6-3:  Extrapolation based upon Average Percent Change

6-4:  Extrapolation based upon Moving Averages

6-5:  Extrapolation based upon Exponential Smoothing

6-6:  Of all methods used, which is best and why?